SAQA All qualifications and part qualifications registered on the National Qualifications Framework are public property. Thus the only payment that can be made for them is for service and reproduction. It is illegal to sell this material for profit. If the material is reproduced or quoted, the South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA) should be acknowledged as the source.
SOUTH AFRICAN QUALIFICATIONS AUTHORITY 
REGISTERED UNIT STANDARD THAT HAS PASSED THE END DATE: 

Produce and interpret time series and index numbers 
SAQA US ID UNIT STANDARD TITLE
262558  Produce and interpret time series and index numbers 
ORIGINATOR
SGB Statistics 
PRIMARY OR DELEGATED QUALITY ASSURANCE FUNCTIONARY
-  
FIELD SUBFIELD
Field 10 - Physical, Mathematical, Computer and Life Sciences Mathematical Sciences 
ABET BAND UNIT STANDARD TYPE PRE-2009 NQF LEVEL NQF LEVEL CREDITS
Undefined  Regular  Level 5  Level TBA: Pre-2009 was L5  12 
REGISTRATION STATUS REGISTRATION START DATE REGISTRATION END DATE SAQA DECISION NUMBER
Passed the End Date -
Status was "Reregistered" 		 2018-07-01  2023-06-30  SAQA 06120/18 
LAST DATE FOR ENROLMENT LAST DATE FOR ACHIEVEMENT
2024-06-30   2027-06-30  

In all of the tables in this document, both the pre-2009 NQF Level and the NQF Level is shown. In the text (purpose statements, qualification rules, etc), any references to NQF Levels are to the pre-2009 levels unless specifically stated otherwise.  

This unit standard does not replace any other unit standard and is not replaced by any other unit standard. 

PURPOSE OF THE UNIT STANDARD 
The skills, values and knowledge reflected in this unit standard are required by people in the field of statistics. Learners would be able to contribute to a quality hierarchy of skills required to provide quality services in statistics by producing and interpreting time series and index numbers.

A person credited with this unit standard is able to:
  • Produce and critically assess descriptive time series analysis, including the decomposition of trends and seasonal patterns.
  • Explain the meaning of the components into which time series data are decomposed using additive and multiplicative models.
  • Discuss the context in which time series data are commonly used in practice.
  • Demonstrate an understanding of the consumer and producer price index numbers.
  • Compute and interpret the consumer and producer price index numbers.
  • Identify and discuss the roles and analyse the implications of consumer and producer price index numbers on the economy. 
    		•

    LEARNING ASSUMED TO BE IN PLACE AND RECOGNITION OF PRIOR LEARNING 
  • Mathematics NQF Level 4.
  • Communication NQF Level 4. 
    		•

    UNIT STANDARD RANGE 
    N/A 

    Specific Outcomes and Assessment Criteria: 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 1 
    Produce and critically assess descriptive time series analyses, including the decomposition of trends and seasonal patterns. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    The terms trend, seasonal variation, additive model, multiplicative model are defined in order to reflect an understanding of the principles of time series analysis. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    A time series chart is constructed and interpreted contextually in order to identify trends and seasonal patterns. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    A moving average trend of data is calculated and plotted in order to predict future trends. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    A series of chain-based index numbers is converted into a fixed base series in order to describe and compare changes over a period. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 5 
    A straight line is fitted to the trend series in order to predict future values. 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 2 
    Explain the meaning of the components into which time series data are decomposed using additive and multiplicative models. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    The four components of a time series are defined in order to facilitate model building. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    The difference between additive and multiplicative models is explained in order to select the most suitable model for a given context. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    The average seasonal variation is calculated using an additive model or a multiplicative model in order to interpret a time series. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    The seasonal and trend components are examined in order to report on the behaviour of a time series. 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 3 
    Discuss the context in which time series data are commonly used in practice. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    Major time series data sources in South Africa are identified in order to compare with the series produced by other countries. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    Consumer and producer price index numbers are calculated in order to determine the trend in price. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    The roles of specific index numbers are discussed in order to reflect their importance to the economy. 
    ASSESSMENT CRITERION RANGE 
    The specific index numbers include but not limited to producer and consumer price indices.
     

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 4 
    Demonstrate an understanding of the consumer and producer price index numbers. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    The concept of "the basket of goods" is defined in order to illustrate the relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the household expenditure. 
    ASSESSMENT CRITERION RANGE 
    Composition of the "basket of goods" includes but is not limited to food, clothing, housing and services expenditure.
     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    The role of weights attached to the different components of the "basket of goods" is defined in order to draw meaningful conclusions. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    Understand that the CPI is a change in price with reference to a given base year. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    Understand that the Producer Price Index(PPI) reflects the change in prices of the raw materials' input into the production of goods compared to the base year. 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 5 
    Compute and interpret the consumer and producer price index numbers. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    CPI and PPI are calculated manually and by using computer software to give a trend in the change of price in the economy. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    CPI and PPI are interpreted in order to draw meaningful conclusions about the state of the economy. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    CPI and PPI are interpreted in order to give an understanding to the concept of inflation. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    Distinguish between CPI and the Consumer Price Index(CPIX) excluding interest rates on mortgage bonds in order to isolate the influence of interest rates on housing within the economy. 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 6 
    Identify and discuss the roles and analyse the implications of consumer and producer price index numbers on the economy. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    Understand how the Reserve Bank uses the CPI and PPI estimates to pronounce on the interest rates. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    Understand how the Minister of Finance uses inflation targeting to control the economy. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    CPI and PPI are explained to show how they influence foreign investments. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    CPI is explained to show how labour and employers use CPI in wage negotiations and retrenchments. 


    UNIT STANDARD ACCREDITATION AND MODERATION OPTIONS 
  • The assessment will be governed by the policies and guidelines of the relevant Education and Training Quality Assuror (ETQA) that has jurisdiction over this field of learning.
  • The assessor will (at the very least) be accredited and have a relevant qualification and be a subject matter expert in this learning area and at least have 3 years experience in the skills specific area, post qualification.
  • The learner can be assessed against this unit standard to obtain credits or as part of an integrated assessment for a qualification.

    > Internal moderation.
    > External moderation.
    > An assessor, accredited by the relevant ETQA, will assess the learner's competency.
    > Assessment procedures will be supplied by the ETQA in alignment with NSB requirements.
    > All assessment activities must be fair, so that all candidates have equal opportunities. Activities must be free of gender, ethnic or other bias.
    > Assessment and moderation procedures, activities and tools must be transparent, affordable and support development within the field, sub-field and NQF.
    > Questions and answers to determine theoretical knowledge are expected.
    > Assessment of a portfolio of evidence.
    > Direct observation in simulated and/or controlled work conditions. 
    		•

    UNIT STANDARD ESSENTIAL EMBEDDED KNOWLEDGE 
    Names, functions and locations of:
  • Computer software.
  • Graphical (trends) and tabular representations.
  • Numerical summary statistics.
  • Weighted mean.
  • Basket of goods.

    Purpose of processes and procedures of:
  • Purpose of the investigation.
  • Decision making.
  • Monitoring the economy.

    Attributes, properties, characteristics related to:
  • Additive and multiplicative time series models.
  • Trends and seasonal patterns.
  • Moving averages.
  • Index numbers.

    Cause and effect, implications of:
  • Moving averages.
  • Index weights.
  • Including/excluding bond interest in CPI.

    Procedures and techniques:
  • Time series analysis.
  • Moving average trend.
  • Time series charts.
  • Numerical summary statistics.
  • Calculation of CPI, CPIX and PPI.

    Regulations, legislation, agreements, policies:
  • National Statistical Offices.
  • National Statistics Act.

    Theory: Rules, laws, principles:
  • Seasonal and trend components.
  • Time series analysis.
  • Index numbers.
  • Weights.
  • Rates of inflation and interest rates.
  • Base year.

    Relationships, systems:
  • Between CPI and PPI and foreign investments.
  • CPI and PPI and wage negotiations and retrenchments.
  • Between the Reserve Bank and index numbers. 
    		•

    UNIT STANDARD DEVELOPMENTAL OUTCOME 
    N/A 

    UNIT STANDARD LINKAGES 
    N/A 


    Critical Cross-field Outcomes (CCFO): 

    UNIT STANDARD CCFO IDENTIFYING 
    Identifying and solving problems in which responses display that responsible decisions using critical and creative thinking have been made when:
  • Producing and interpreting time series and index numbers. 
    		•

    UNIT STANDARD CCFO WORKING 
    Working effectively with others as a member of a team, group, organisation, and community during:
  • Consultation with supervisor.
  • Team work in projects. 
    		•

    UNIT STANDARD CCFO ORGANISING 
    Organising and managing oneself and one's activities responsibly and effectively when:
  • Planning and using time series analysis and index numbers. 
    		•

    UNIT STANDARD CCFO COLLECTING 
    Collecting, analysing, organising and critically evaluating information to better understand and explain:
  • The calculation and interpretation of index numbers.
  • The concepts of rates of inflation and interest rates.
  • The relationship between inflation and wage negotiations. 
    		•

    UNIT STANDARD CCFO COMMUNICATING 
    Communicating effectively using visual, mathematical and/or language skills in the modes of oral and/or written persuasion when:
  • Explaining the meaning of the components into which time series data are decomposed using additive and multiplicative models.
  • Discussing the context in which time series data are commonly used in practice. 
    		•

    UNIT STANDARD CCFO SCIENCE 
    Using science and technology effectively and critically, showing responsibility towards the environment and health of others when:
  • Producing and critically assessing descriptive time series analysis, including the decomposition of trends and seasonal patterns.
  • Calculating different and appropriate index numbers. 
    		•

    UNIT STANDARD CCFO DEMONSTRATING 
    Demonstrating an understanding of the world as a set of related systems by recognising that problem-solving contexts do not exist in isolation when:
  • Recognising the relationship between the collected price data and the economy.
  • Recognising the influences of index numbers on the social, political, economic, legislative and environmental contexts.
  • Recognising the influences of price index numbers with rates of inflation and interest rates. 
    		•

    UNIT STANDARD ASSESSOR CRITERIA 
    N/A 

    REREGISTRATION HISTORY 
    As per the SAQA Board decision/s at that time, this unit standard was Reregistered in 2012; 2015. 

    UNIT STANDARD NOTES 
    N/A 

    QUALIFICATIONS UTILISING THIS UNIT STANDARD: 
      ID QUALIFICATION TITLE PRE-2009 NQF LEVEL NQF LEVEL STATUS END DATE PRIMARY OR DELEGATED QA FUNCTIONARY
    Core  65649   National Certificate: Official Statistics  Level 5  Level TBA: Pre-2009 was L5  Passed the End Date -
    Status was "Reregistered"     		 2023-06-30  PSETA 


    PROVIDERS CURRENTLY ACCREDITED TO OFFER THIS UNIT STANDARD: 
    This information shows the current accreditations (i.e. those not past their accreditation end dates), and is the most complete record available to SAQA as of today. Some Primary or Delegated Quality Assurance Functionaries have a lag in their recording systems for provider accreditation, in turn leading to a lag in notifying SAQA of all the providers that they have accredited to offer qualifications and unit standards, as well as any extensions to accreditation end dates. The relevant Primary or Delegated Quality Assurance Functionary should be notified if a record appears to be missing from here.
     
    NONE 


    All qualifications and part qualifications registered on the National Qualifications Framework are public property. Thus the only payment that can be made for them is for service and reproduction. It is illegal to sell this material for profit. If the material is reproduced or quoted, the South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA) should be acknowledged as the source.